THUCYDIDE'S TRAP

 “Thucydide’s trap” was bandied about during the recent summit between Xi and Trump. The mere mention of a trap sent the advisors scurrying for cover, as none of them had ever heard of such a term. They were only aware of the ‘honeytrap’ especially of the Epstein variety. Google or may be even Chatgpt would have come to their rescue and they would have realised this was a lesson from ancient Greek history and related to the contest between  the challenger to the throne and the incumbent power in the world order. I read about this sometime in the last decade while studying US-China relations and how and when would this phenomenon be applicable in the emerging global geopolitical scenario.

The trap essentially describes that a conflict is bound to ensue with the rise of a new power, as was witnessed between Athens and Sparta about two millennia ago, after their victory over Persia. Be that as it may, Xi Jin Ping trumped hapless Trump with such unpronounceable tongue twisters without even a digital ‘ping’. Trump was forced to recall ‘Vivekamunadanan..’ and many other such gaffes. He was always wondering as to why did they have to choose such names, why can’t they keep them simple like his own and then just suffix a senior or junior, don’t even need to look for a new name. Leave alone understand the nuances of the term, Donald was aghast when Peloponnesian War was quoted, once again his vocabulary and imagination could take him only to Penelope you know Cruz. She is pretty and obviously worth going to a war for, so thought the supreme leader. “The face that launched a thousand ships”, that was Helen of Troy, but here, is China really threatening to go to war over Penelope? How he wished that someone special was alive, Xi could have been enticed with prettier faces. Moreover this was supposed to have happened in history, which bored him no end. So was it a case of rebirth or reincarnation? He will have to consult his dear friend Modi, after all Indians believe in this theory.Trump is of course very clever, or so he thinks and presumes, he is confident that he can’t be trapped. He is pretty good at trap shooting though, what with all the guns at his disposal ablaze. 

Post second world war, the supremacy in the world order simply passed on to the Americans from the British, as the Brits realised the game was up and it was wiser to start playing second fiddle. Times have changed now as China is fast emerging as a challenger, though is yet to reach the critical phase. May be the usage of the term Thucydide’s trap is a little premature. But knowing the Chinese, this may be just a case of testing waters. There is another fundamental difference, here the predominant power itself is bent on committing harakiri by getting embroiled in this highly avoidable Iranian imbroglio. Having initiated the conflict with this minnow Iran, they are now looking for a face saving closure, which is not exactly what the only super power in the world can be proud of. Such a conflict exposes the chinks in their armour, thereby benefitting the Dragon no doubt. Yanks aren’t going to let the Chinese take the centre-stage so easily, that’s a given. As it is globalisation as we knew it has been given a go by, and given a quiet burial without even a formal send off. So whether it is the threat of Thucydide’s or of thousand ships, China must not count their chickens before they hatch. Only time will tell if this is destined and also if yes, then when?