COCKROACHES RULE

 

Cockroaches are in news, they are gloating in their celebrity status, after all no less than the Chief Justice of India has compared them to the youth of our country, later clarified as fake degree holder unemployed ones. As though ‘rose by any other name wouldn’t smell as sweet’, so cockroach by any distinction will cease to be what the species is. Youth of our great nation are our hope for the future, they are the ‘dividend’ portion of the demographic equity that we the people have so painstakingly accumulated, generated and reproduced over the last nearly eight odd decades. Now comparison with cockroaches can be perceived as a compliment as we all are aware, their main characteristic is ‘survival’. They predate even dinosaurs, and will survive the nuclear holocaust too, God forbid but should that ever be perpetuated on us by some maniacs.

Cockroaches have another very useful trait, the feminine gender of homo sapiens is by and large mighty scared of them. Males of the homo sapiens species find this trait very useful, as there is no other means by which they can exercise any control over them. Mere sighting a cockroach is sufficient to send them scurrying for cover, as though cockroaches have an enmity with only them. On the contrary, they don’t bite and are physically harmless except that the hygiene and sanitation factor where they appear is suspect to say the least. They generally thrive in the sewage, dirt and slime and revel in the dark, when all the others retire, they rule the roost. This reminds me of an interesting anecdote way back in 1986, we were in Indian Military Academy and in one of the classes, welfare of jawans was being discussed. One of the issues related to the topic, was the ‘kitchen’, its cleanliness and the hygiene factors involved. One of us mentioned that pest control was desirable and cockroaches need to be eliminated totally. The instructor was an Assam Regiment officer, who said,”Roaches, oh they are a delicacy, our troops relish them.” China, Thailand, Vietnam and some other Oriental countries too consider them edible and enjoy them as snacks as they are supposed to be  full of protein. 

Be that as it may, here the youth have found a common cause and are not just identifying with them, but have gone ahead and declared the advent of a brand new Cockroach Janta Party. Obviously they are cocking a snook at not just the Chief Justice of India in particular, but the establishment in general. While they are justified in their act and apparently it has taken the social media by a storm.  The speed with which the registrations multiplied gives credence to the naysayers; it appears to be bots rather than genuine people. India has had its share of experiments with anarchical Aam Aadmi Party, and another one on similar lines doesn’t really bring any hope. While their grievances are genuine, this kind of mob mentality which leads to anarchy, which has been witnessed in the neighbouring countries in the recent times is obviously not the solution. Many in the opposition have also been vocal about such an eventuality and have even been instigating them but to their chagrin, Indian youth has more sense than that. They have demonstrated their faith in the democratic norms and have booted out governments by the power of their vote. It is upto the political parties now to live up to the expectations and deliver, even if it takes a while. But unfortunately the NEET paper leakage type incidents do not inspire much confidence, as the system is being unfair to the conscientious and hardworking youth of our nation. The fact that this has been happening quite frequently is definitely a cause for concern and heads must roll, rather than appointing more Babus, the system needs an overhaul. The issue of unemployability of our so called graduates is also a pertinent one, as merely acquiring a degree does not in any way qualify them for any job. We are aware, the way these degrees are awarded, where the students don’t even attend any classes. Colleges/universities which have mushroomed in every nook and corner without any worthwhile faculty or infrastructure are ill equipped to actually empower the youth. But the blame lies equally with the system, which has brought our education system to its nadir. We have our hopes pinned on the youth, they are not roaches, they are eagles who will soar into the skies for sure, provided the systemic corrections are enforced. Else like the Animal Farm, it will be Cockroaches who will rule

MELODY CHOCOLATEE DIPLOMACY

 So a newspaper in Norway has published a cartoon with Modi as a snake charmer playing the harp  to entice the oil suppliers, which has naturally irked  many of us Indians. For the Westerners, the image of a snake charmer is synonymous with poor, backward, primitive, superstitious Indians. The colonialists had a field day in lampooning the uncivilised barbarians, who have no business to aspire to the higher table, which is traditionally reserved for the ‘gora saab’. What’s new about this stereotyping of Indians, Peter Sellers’s depiction of an Indian in Hollywood movies, Mind Your Language, the British sitcom, Churchill have all been guilty of the same crime against the one of the oldest civilisations of the world. Some years ago, when India’s Mars mission was hugely successful, the NewYork Times published this highly distasteful cartoon. Obviously this kind of denigration is a sign of envy. Onida TV which some of us old timers would recall had an advertisement going with  the catchline “Neighbour’s Envy Owner’s Pride”. Envy is a sign that there is something special which the other’s desire but are unable to acquire for whatever reasons. 

But getting back to the charm offensive, well you can’t blame Modi if he is a charmer, having charmed his way to not only the Prime Ministership of the world’s largest democracy, but also internationally when he hobnobs with  Trump, Putin, Xi on an equal footing. Whether he uses the age old harp or not, he has got the West Asian Sheikhdoms also eating out of his palm. The fact that he has been able to steer India into highly divergent diplomatic groupings such as SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), QUAD, BRICS, speaks volumes about Indian diplomacy. I think the oil exporting nations ought to be offended by the cartoon more, as they have been depicted as snakes, who are being wooed that too by a third world snake charmer. After all someone like Trump or Xi also want to control Energy resources, primarily Oil, and if you don’t have the heft like them, then you have to rely on charm offensive only. Sometimes it is the ‘hug’ which works, sometimes the ‘drums’ and now it is ‘Melody’ which seems to have done the trick.

For someone like Modi who hasn’t really led a married kind of life, he certainly has his way with the ladies; the ‘Melody chocolatee’ is proof enough. Meloni-Modi chemistry translating to ‘Melo-Di’, the catchword something which any advertising guy will be proud of.  Something like the Brangelina Brad Pitt and Angela Jolie), closer home Saifina (Saif Ali Khan and Karina Kapoor) or Virushka (Virat Kohli-Anushka Sharma), mind you all of them are or have been couples. This kind of chemistry between heads of state is also something unusual.  Wooing a woman with chocolates is common knowledge, but I bet this is the first time in international diplomacy. Swing diplomacy with Xi was also tried but it failed to deliver the expected results. Shuttle diplomacy was the hallmark of Kissinger, instrumental in the US-China thaw in the early seventies, which has shaped the global affairs and resulted in the  final disintegration of erstwhile USSR. Chocolate diplomacy may not be in the same league but all the same it has got the goat of some of Indian opposition leaders. The taste of the chocolate apart from the fact that it melts in the mouth is that it is trending on the internet with more than two hundred million  hits. “Melody itni chococolatee kaise bani ? Melody khao khud jan jao” ( How did Melody become so chocolatee? Taste it and find out!!)

 

THUCYDIDE'S TRAP

 “Thucydide’s trap” was bandied about during the recent summit between Xi and Trump. The mere mention of a trap sent the advisors scurrying for cover, as none of them had ever heard of such a term. They were only aware of the ‘honeytrap’ especially of the Epstein variety. Google or may be even Chatgpt would have come to their rescue and they would have realised this was a lesson from ancient Greek history and related to the contest between  the challenger to the throne and the incumbent power in the world order. I read about this sometime in the last decade while studying US-China relations and how and when would this phenomenon be applicable in the emerging global geopolitical scenario.

The trap essentially describes that a conflict is bound to ensue with the rise of a new power, as was witnessed between Athens and Sparta about two millennia ago, after their victory over Persia. Be that as it may, Xi Jin Ping trumped hapless Trump with such unpronounceable tongue twisters without even a digital ‘ping’. Trump was forced to recall ‘Vivekamunadanan..’ and many other such gaffes. He was always wondering as to why did they have to choose such names, why can’t they keep them simple like his own and then just suffix a senior or junior, don’t even need to look for a new name. Leave alone understand the nuances of the term, Donald was aghast when Peloponnesian War was quoted, once again his vocabulary and imagination could take him only to Penelope you know Cruz. She is pretty and obviously worth going to a war for, so thought the supreme leader. “The face that launched a thousand ships”, that was Helen of Troy, but here, is China really threatening to go to war over Penelope? How he wished that someone special was alive, Xi could have been enticed with prettier faces. Moreover this was supposed to have happened in history, which bored him no end. So was it a case of rebirth or reincarnation? He will have to consult his dear friend Modi, after all Indians believe in this theory.Trump is of course very clever, or so he thinks and presumes, he is confident that he can’t be trapped. He is pretty good at trap shooting though, what with all the guns at his disposal ablaze. 

Post second world war, the supremacy in the world order simply passed on to the Americans from the British, as the Brits realised the game was up and it was wiser to start playing second fiddle. Times have changed now as China is fast emerging as a challenger, though is yet to reach the critical phase. May be the usage of the term Thucydide’s trap is a little premature. But knowing the Chinese, this may be just a case of testing waters. There is another fundamental difference, here the predominant power itself is bent on committing harakiri by getting embroiled in this highly avoidable Iranian imbroglio. Having initiated the conflict with this minnow Iran, they are now looking for a face saving closure, which is not exactly what the only super power in the world can be proud of. Such a conflict exposes the chinks in their armour, thereby benefitting the Dragon no doubt. Yanks aren’t going to let the Chinese take the centre-stage so easily, that’s a given. As it is globalisation as we knew it has been given a go by, and given a quiet burial without even a formal send off. So whether it is the threat of Thucydide’s or of thousand ships, China must not count their chickens before they hatch. Only time will tell if this is destined and also if yes, then when?

AMAR SONAR BANGLA

 What is so special about Bengal? Is it the lush green countryside or the rich cultural heritage, the echoes of Rabindra sangeet, soft lilting and enchanting or is the earthy nature of its people. I can't possibly figure out, but all the same there is something magical about this land. Maybe it is the spirituality of Ramkrishna and Vivekanand or our childhood  fascination with the freedom fighters associated with Bengal led by the enigmatic Netaji Subhash and the likes of Khudiram Bose. It may even be Hooghly and the fish which is the staple not just diet but even the topic for conversation. Can we imagine the history of Indian Cinema without Satyajit Ray, or the scientific temper without Jagdish Bose or Satyendra Bose, or Classical dance and music of Uday Shankar-Ravi Shankar duo, literature of Gurudev Rabindranath Tagore? 

The people here are very passionate about the causes they espouse whether it is Missionaries of Charity, Communism or even Soccer clubs, Mohan Bagan or East Bengal. Bengalis are fanatics for soccer, the rivalry of Mohan Bagan and East Bengal and their fans is legendary and even a Saurav Ganguly at his peak could not make a dent on this soccer craze. Pujo is sacrosanct, a time reserved not for any ordinary festivities, it goes on for a week, preparations commence may be even a month or so earlier. The whole of Kolkata comes to a virtual standstill, as though in a  a trance, meditative,  immersed in the Bhakti of Ma Kali.   

Bengal was the pioneer when India awoke from its millennia of  slumber. The reforms under Raja Ram Mohan Roy ushered in a new era when the age old social evils were addressed for the first time. It received support from the British, which was a surprise as they were not here on a reform agenda nor for any philanthropic mission.They could have simply trained their babus who were their acolytes, without interfering with the contentious issues such as Sati or widow remarriage. May be they felt highlighting these evils would lead to en masse conversion to Christianity thus fulfilling their proselytising mission as well the proverbial white man's burden. Whatever may have been the reason Bengal led the way for rest of India to follow .

So, was it their superior intellect which ultimately led them into the morass of today or over the years the bhadralok simply faded away leaving the field open to the scoundrels. Was the onset of communism in a way responsible or was it the natural course of events, what goes up must come down, almost sinusoidal life cycle. I have often wondered, what if the communists had not wrested power from the Congress in the 70s. Would Bengal have been where Maharashtra or Gujarat is today ..may be ..may not be! The entrepreneurship of Gujaratis, Marwaris is legendary and in contrast Bengalis were considered more academic, delving  into literature, spirituality etc.  So may be we would have had the scientists and poets who could have led from the front and guided this nation through the tumultuous years of confusion of the 70s.

It is not a coincidence that two of the most literate and politically aware  states ushered in ‘democratic communism’ a paradox in itself.   So Communism became the opium for these masses, with due apologies to Karl Marx.What if Netaji had survived the air crash and returned to India to provide the nation an alternative to Nehru right in the 50s. In the death of Netaji and prior to that, Gandhiji's disapproval of his philosophy left Bengal rudderless, without any leader of  national stature. 

But we are digressing, Bengali middle class by and large continues to pursue art  and literature; so is their silent acquiescence responsible for the state of affairs today, a la the Moslem middle class all  over the world. No by no means am I comparing Islamic fundamentalism to communism. Although communists have not been  in power for more than a decade now here, but their goons are very much there, majority having simply switched sides.

May be the time has come for its resurrection… the dark period is over. A sort of Rip Van Winkle, who has just woken up from his stupor, after nearly half a century. Some flicker of hope, light at the end of the tunnel…May the glory of Bengal be rekindled! Amar Sonar Bangla!

NFU:THE BANE OF ARMED FORCES

 

NFU sounds almost like an expletive, and the Armed Forces of India have been led to believe that the second and third letters signify what is being doled out to them. The attitude of  Govt of India, represented by the babus has been very negative all along towards this great institution, for no fault of theirs. They have pulled every trick in their hat to deny the clueless faujis their dues over the nearly eight odd decades since independence. 

So what exactly is this NFU, well it stands for ‘Non Functional Upgradation’, i.e. since promotional avenues were limited for the government bureaucracy due to the supposed stagnation in higher ranks, their cadre is promised this boost in their emoluments equivalent to their contemporaries. To illustrate if the first person from the batch of 2009 is promoted to the level of Joint Secretary in May 2026, then all persons belonging to this batch get the emoluments and are placed in the same grade pay 14 of the Joint Secretary in May 2028. This way, the hierarchy ensures there is no heartburn for missed out promotions, as irrespective of your performance, your pay and perks stay protected. This is ostensibly to compensate them, the concept though flawed, as there are literally no performance based incentives, but it does serve the purpose of keeping them happy. 

The reason behind the denial of NFU to Indian Armed Forces lies probably in the nomenclature itself. Since it is ‘Non Functional’ in nature, so the only functional organisation can’t obviously be a beneficiary. Either we change it to ‘functional upgradation’, but then the ‘non-functional’ organs can’t be included in that. This Catch 22 situation is what is keeping the Forces at bay. In other words, the incentive for us is to convert our organisation also into a non functional one, then and only then will we be eligible for the award.

Armed Forces have steepest pyramid, even at the cost of sounding cliched, I must reiterate, but the fact is, the promotional avenues in the Armed Forces are severely restricted owing to the structure of the organisation itself. There can be only one General, Air Chief Marshal or Admiral, you can’t possibly have a General for Logistics, General for Intelligence, General for Operations, General for Procurements and so on, as their brethren in the civil hierarchy; I believe they have DG Police Fire, DGP Anti-Corruption Bureau, DGP Rescue Work, DGP Housing and so on. They have no qualms in sanctioning additional posts which they create not because there is a genuine need, but to adjust their bloating hierarchy.

Be that as it may, the tug of war will continue, while the Armed Forces face functional challenges in their day to day operational duty, merely because of this oneupmanship. Post independence to clip the wings of the Armed Forces, the govt turned a blind eye to the blatant usurping of the rank insignia, i.e. stars, flags and epaulette badges of the officer cadre, thereby establishing a parity merely by donning of these rank badges and flying these flags. Then as their organisations grew, the officer cadres expanded and the equivalence of ranks kept getting diluted. Army wasn’t concerned, happy in their own cocoon, till the curse of militancy hit us, when civil military interactions and cooperation became a necessity. 

The enhanced grade pay structure which too kept inching up almost surreptitiously, as when we were commissioned, our pay scale was 2300- 5000, running from 2Lt to Brigadier, while all Group A services started at 2200. But in subsequent pay commissions, today, with 7th pay commission, it stands at 56000 for all at the same starting block and with much faster promotion, they climb to the grade pay of 14 in just 17 years of service, when  only about 25% of their armed forces compatriots are in grade pay 13, the rest are in grade pay 12. The balance 75% will attain grade pay 13 with 26 years of service and retire from there itself. Only about 10% of them will reach grade pay 14 by about 27 years of service, when their civilian counterparts have already been there for about 10 years. The complete civilian cadre  is at grade pay 14 with NFU for eight years. 

Operationally there have been a number of occasions when much junior civilians officials who by virtue of enjoying a better grade pay (curtesy NFU) have thumbed their noses at the Army Officers of the rank of Colonel/Brigadier and above. The issue thus is not just finances but also of status and that is evident in the recent occurrences, where serving Army officers have been ill treated by the police officials with impunity. Unless the status is restored, this malaise which runs deep will create deep fault lines in the country as also end up demoralising the last bastion of this nation.

MAKE AMERICA REGRET AGAIN

 TACO, Trump always chickens out. Chickens have taken umbrage at this insult, since the advent of English language, people have been chickening out and chickens have continued to cross the road without as much as a ‘buck buck bagawk’. But now they have started to squawk and are raising quite a shindy, their concerns are why is it always them, when it comes to a ‘no show’. Well boxers duck against their adversaries in the ring, so do politicians when faced with uncomfortable questions, but when it comes to cowardice, poor chickens have to face the brunt, they can’t even chicken out, you see. Donald should probably ‘quack’ out, after his namesake Disney toon, though to be sure Donald Ducky has disowned Donald Trump a long time ago.

Chickens have represented, why not ‘Trump always beefs out’ or ‘porks’ out may even be better taking a cue from George Orwell’s classic Animal Farm . To be honest, he has demonstrated his ‘pig headedness’ on many an occasions earlier, especially with the tariff business. He has a ‘monkey mind’ and is always up to his ‘monkey tricks’ too, so may be ‘monkeyed’ out may fit the bill. Orang-utan also comes to mind, after all there is a striking resemblance to the ‘orange’ coloured hairs.

Beefing out though thankfully has been spared, else Indian sensibilities would be hurt, so also ‘pork out’ with the Islamic world, but there are plenty of animals out there, they could pick any which takes their fancy, but spare the chickens the blushes. As it is, this time around Trump has been accused of ‘counting his chickens’ before they were even hatched, especially the Iranian nuclear capability ones. After all he has opened a ‘can of worms’ and has got the goat of the whole world. He has never been the one to ‘hold his horses’, so his incessant blabbering on social media have even put the babblers (the seven sisters) to shame. He has been behaving like a bull in the china shop and there is no one who can take this bull by the Hor-muz. 

Trump’s quest for a regime change in Iran is turning out to be a ‘wild goose chase’, the Yanks have sort of perfected this art, looking for those non-existent weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and Taliban in Afghanistan. Chickens have heaved a huge sigh of relief that they are domesticated, else Trump would have probably gone on that wild chicken chase too. He presumed the Iranians would be strutting around like ‘headless chickens’ after the strikes, well they seem to have trumped Trump and instead now, Chickens will definitely come home to roost soon. November mid terms are round the corner, when the ‘wolf in sheep’s clothing’ of MAGA will reveal his true colours and turn into MARA, Make America Regret Again. Well you literally killed it guys!

 

IT'S TACO TIME

 We are in the eighth week of this highly avoidable US-Israel offensive against Iran and despite some efforts towards a negotiated peace deal, there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of this tunnel yet. As predicted by this author, “President Trump will declare victory and seek cessation of hostilities on his own terms at the beginning of this conflict” in my column “Iran Imbroglio”, he is playing to the script. Thereafter, his threat of wiping out the civilisation was a veiled threat of resorting  to go nuclear was essentially to nudge Iran towards signing the deal on American terms. To be fair to US and Trump, they have had Iran on their crosshairs and have been trying to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran since 1979. But before commencing this conflict they had not counted on the resilience of Iranians and hence the current logjam.

This disastrous conflict is wreaking havoc not only on Iran and the West Asia in particular, but the world as a whole for obvious reasons, i.e. global energy dependence on this geographical entity. So far Iran has played his cards deftly, having caused turbulence in the GCC nations with their selective targeting of the US bases in the region, as also controlling the maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US-Israel duo needed a quick conflict termination, which has been succesfully averted and the stage is set for what could turn into a prolonged war. US record of all such conflicts has been very poor, be it Vietnam or Afghanistan. They have finally turned their tails and withdrawn without even a face saver. Iranians are counting on that, but this time they are demanding their pound of flesh, before they let the Yanks off. 

The million dollar question is will the two finally tango or will it be yet another case of TACO (Trump always Chickens out). Let us understand as to why Iranians will not throw in the towel, they have suffered enormous damage to their armed forces, as also to their civilian infrastructure but their clergy led regime is very much in tact and so are the institutions such as IRGC. The American terms demand a total surrender, whereby Iran sacrifices its enriched Uranium and freezes its nuclear ambition for 20 years and in return gets precious little. Negotiations are based on ‘give and take’ but Trump’s art of cutting a deal is to make unreasonable demands right at the outset,  so that the rival party is prepared to accept terms which are favourable to Trump, as was evident in his Tariff diplomacy. Iran though is a different kettle of fish, for them it is a battle of survival and a surrender on American terms will be the end of this regime. So Iranians are currently placed in a ‘do or die’ scenario, where, they are disrupting the maritime traffic through Strait of Hormuz, thus forcing the global powers to push the Americans to bring this war to a closure at the earliest as world economy is on a downward spiral hurtling towards its doom if this situation prevails for long.  A prolonged conflict will be disastrous for US taxpayer also, apart form the highly avoidable bodybags which  is surely a recipe for disaster for the Republicans in the coming Mid Term elections in November.

Why does a nation surrender? We saw that Pakistan surrendered in 1971, when they were defeated in the minds not just on the battlefield. They could have held on for another couple of weeks, but the air strike on the East Pakistan Governor’s house in Dhaka drove them to immediate capitulation. Here in Iran, despite the loss of their top political and military hierarchy, they have not only survived but have waged an effective strategic battle forcing the adversary to shelve their stated aim of regime change and negotiate. In this war, it appears that at the time of conflict termination Americans may not be successful in their stated aims, then despite the damage inflicted on Iran, the battle of perception would be won by Iran. The sole global superpower and the regional power in West Asia would have been forced to eat a humble pie, thus increasing the stature of Iran in the geo-strategic affairs in West Asia. Israel would face the heat as Hezbollah would not just be surviving but would  still be a force to reckon with, so would the Houthis. So this conflict per se, may not end with any negotiated peace deal in the near future, but the intensity of strikes may reduce considerably, the Strait may continue to be policed by both US and Iran, before finally it is  TACO time.