IT'S TACO TIME

 We are in the eighth week of this highly avoidable US-Israel offensive against Iran and despite some efforts towards a negotiated peace deal, there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of this tunnel yet. As predicted by this author, “President Trump will declare victory and seek cessation of hostilities on his own terms at the beginning of this conflict” in my column “Iran Imbroglio”, he is playing to the script. Thereafter, his threat of wiping out the civilisation was a veiled threat of resorting  to go nuclear was essentially to nudge Iran towards signing the deal on American terms. To be fair to US and Trump, they have had Iran on their crosshairs and have been trying to eliminate the threat of a nuclear Iran since 1979. But before commencing this conflict they had not counted on the resilience of Iranians and hence the current logjam.

This disastrous conflict is wreaking havoc not only on Iran and the West Asia in particular, but the world as a whole for obvious reasons, i.e. global energy dependence on this geographical entity. So far Iran has played his cards deftly, having caused turbulence in the GCC nations with their selective targeting of the US bases in the region, as also controlling the maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. US-Israel duo needed a quick conflict termination, which has been succesfully averted and the stage is set for what could turn into a prolonged war. US record of all such conflicts has been very poor, be it Vietnam or Afghanistan. They have finally turned their tails and withdrawn without even a face saver. Iranians are counting on that, but this time they are demanding their pound of flesh, before they let the Yanks off. 

The million dollar question is will the two finally tango or will it be yet another case of TACO (Trump always Chickens out). Let us understand as to why Iranians will not throw in the towel, they have suffered enormous damage to their armed forces, as also to their civilian infrastructure but their clergy led regime is very much in tact and so are the institutions such as IRGC. The American terms demand a total surrender, whereby Iran sacrifices its enriched Uranium and freezes its nuclear ambition for 20 years and in return gets precious little. Negotiations are based on ‘give and take’ but Trump’s art of cutting a deal is to make unreasonable demands right at the outset,  so that the rival party is prepared to accept terms which are favourable to Trump, as was evident in his Tariff diplomacy. Iran though is a different kettle of fish, for them it is a battle of survival and a surrender on American terms will be the end of this regime. So Iranians are currently placed in a ‘do or die’ scenario, where, they are disrupting the maritime traffic through Strait of Hormuz, thus forcing the global powers to push the Americans to bring this war to a closure at the earliest as world economy is on a downward spiral hurtling towards its doom if this situation prevails for long.  A prolonged conflict will be disastrous for US taxpayer also, apart form the highly avoidable bodybags which  is surely a recipe for disaster for the Republicans in the coming Mid Term elections in November.

Why does a nation surrender? We saw that Pakistan surrendered in 1971, when they were defeated in the minds not just on the battlefield. They could have held on for another couple of weeks, but the air strike on the East Pakistan Governor’s house in Dhaka drove them to immediate capitulation. Here in Iran, despite the loss of their top political and military hierarchy, they have not only survived but have waged an effective strategic battle forcing the adversary to shelve their stated aim of regime change and negotiate. In this war, it appears that at the time of conflict termination Americans may not be successful in their stated aims, then despite the damage inflicted on Iran, the battle of perception would be won by Iran. The sole global superpower and the regional power in West Asia would have been forced to eat a humble pie, thus increasing the stature of Iran in the geo-strategic affairs in West Asia. Israel would face the heat as Hezbollah would not just be surviving but would  still be a force to reckon with, so would the Houthis. So this conflict per se, may not end with any negotiated peace deal in the near future, but the intensity of strikes may reduce considerably, the Strait may continue to be policed by both US and Iran, before finally it is  TACO time.