INDIAN ELECTION LEAGUE

Psephologists are in demand, with exit polls, opinion polls galore and the countless number of TV channels; they are having the time of their life. When we were growing up, we had not heard of this supposed statistical science where they predict the voting patterns and election results. Psephology traces its origin from Greek word "psephos" meaning 'pebbles', as ancient Greeks used pebbles for voting. Interestingly "ballot" is derived from Italian "balla" meaning "ball" which too was used for casting their votes. It was with the advent of NDTV that we learnt this term, as Prannoy Roy started this trend of election coverage on TV. Prior to that Doordarshan's coverage was restricted to just the hourly election results and the intervening period movies were screened to keep the audience glued to the TV. Those days we were not spoilt for choices and movies were normally screened only on Sunday evenings, an event which was looked forward to by the complete family and also the neighbours.

But getting back to psephology, as in all statistical sciences predictions are based on facts and can be analysed at the whims and fancies of the individual. Like astrology their predictions too have a very wide range from absolute negative to totally positive. The data base remains the same but the results vary, then how is this a science? What we understand of science is that it is exact and precise in nature based on a set of observations. But when a  Dorab Sopariwala takes a diametrically opposite view to that of Prashant Kishore or Yogendra Yadav and Anand Ranganathan (not strictly a psephologist ) at total variance in their analysis then one is convinced that we must not take this "bak-bak 'brigade" too seriously. When Prannoy Roy articulated his analysis we all sat mesmerised in front of the TV trying to grasp the finer nuances of elections in India. It made such an impression on our young minds in that era of coalitions, Mandal, Kamandal that most of the guys of that generation got hooked to it. No, not electioneering or voting, just listening to this telecast, something akin to Budget presentation when we all sit glued and watch the Finance Minister trying to match the figures, not understanding a thing except the IT rebate slabs. Here too, what interests us is who is getting how many seats, the hows and whys is beyond our pay grade. 

These days that cacophony which passes off as TV debates would be quite amusing if it was not so irritating. Almost all the channels are equally guilty and elections are what they await eagerly to peddle their theories. The anchors get a chance to prove their loyalty and the more heated and vitriolic the debate, the more the TRP, naturally  the channel owners laugh their way to the bank. Now imagine the elections got over on 1st of June, results are to be declared on the 4th, for almost 60 hours these armchair analysts are going to have a field day. The same statistics and figures are doled out, even the formats don't change, the experts get to indulge in studio hopping, earning themselves some good pocket money. While the main protagonists the BJP and Congress spokespersons are confidence personified about the results till the final outcome and then without batting an eyelid one party blames the EVM and the other gloats over the victory. Sometimes the tables turn but the spokespersons are not the ones to introspect and analyse the reasons for the debacle.

Let me give you a simple guide to becoming a psephologist, understand the caste conundrum of the constituencies, get the statistical figures of voting patters of previous elections, extrapolate the data and interpret it the way you want to and then just throw the figures around to confuse everyone and there you are. Like astrology sometimes you will get it right and then you become a celebrity, often you will be on a tangent but that can easily be explained by the "fence sitters", "women vote bank" or any other "X" factor. In any case we Indians are quite actively involved in politics and every Tea shop or Paan shop has plenty of experts waxing eloquent about their theories with the exact number of seats and the reasons thereof. Thankfully the IPL is over, so they can concentrate fully on the Indian Election League. Wow I think this is quite a brilliant idea, we need to get our Lalit Modi back, I am sure he can turn this exercise into a money spinner like the IPL, with real cheerleaders and not these psephologists. Any takers…!!